Portfolio Pursuit

The R Word

March 10, 2025

Last week a lot of people in the print and news media kept using this annoying euphemism: "economic softening." Endless commentary on how the "data shows some softening", "there is some softening in the jobs numbers", and so on. over the weekend President Trump was needled by reporters about the prospect of a recession and suddenly everybody is using the R-word this week.

On top of that, I am seeing more and more people claim that the AI trade is dead.

With a major sell-off after the fizzle of the open, the questions about recession are not altogether surprising. I am writing this as we head into the lunch hour in New York and the day started to look like a V shape. Sell-off to start, hitting a new low, and then climbing back up as dip buying occurs. Without positive news I doubt a substantial recovery to the levels of the open will happen. Last week Trump had to delay tariffs before the recovery happened.

Based on how aggressively things have sold off today I could have made more profit by holding longer, but as is so often the case, there are other demands on my time.

All things said, a souring in sentiment not fundamentals is driving the numbers down today.

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