Portfolio Pursuit

Economic Hump Day

March 05, 2025

I have seen this theory repeated a couple times now that the White House is intentionally driving down bond yields as some way to force the Federal Reserve to lower rates, reduce inflation, or perform some other economic wizardry.

A speaker during yesterday's Bloomberg Invest sessions was incredulous about this representing some sort of credible policy strategy, instead they frequently referred to it as "slash and burn." It is nonsense. The fiscal policy equivalent of carpet bombing the forest to manage wildfire risk.

During the course of the day there was a tremendous amount of "will they, won't they" speculation around Canada/Mexico tariffs, intentionally fueled by members of the President's candidate. Watching a few symbols across the tech sector I observed swings of up to +/- 5% on some as the uncertainty tugged in opposing directions on prices.

My strategy has been to stick with trades for as short as possible because of the volatility at play. Yesterday I had executed almost 3x more trades than I did today, but today I was averaging about one trade every 60s. I stopped not because the price action had settled down, but instead because I had turned enough profit and decided it would be best to walk away with my head held high, rather than risk squandering it.

That's on growth.

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