I find it kind of crazy that companies are getting slammed on margin for AI after being slammed late last year for not doing enough AI. Duolingo, which I only recently learned was actually a public company, had positive Q4 results because of "AI" but still got punished for the smaller margins ... because of "AI."

The general vibe of the market seems to be that optimism is waning on all fronts and the day-to-day volatility is largely driven by fears, irrational or otherwise around what the white House might do.

Are tariffs going to happen on March 4th or April 2nd, are they going to happen at all? Will they include Canada? What about the EU, are we suddenly planning to levy self-injuring taxes on EU imports too? Inflation is a complex and multi-faceted economic concept, but the threat of inflation has probably an even bigger impact on the market than inflation itself.

Inflation can be managed through a variety of monetary policies, like raising interest rates and adjusting fiscal policy. Central banks can reduce inflation by implementing these policies to slow down economic growth and increase demand, which should eventually lower prices over time. The central banks cannot feasibly battle inflation without cooperation from the political side of the economy.

The "political side" of the US economy is currently attempting to change the rules on a daily basis with no regard for consequences. To recap, the things that increase inflation:

• Tariffs
• Tax cuts
• Lowering rates prematurely
• ???

Things that can decrease inflation:

• Increased rates
• A weakening jobs market
• ???

I heard that the February following an inauguration is a historically lousy month for the markets because of all the uncertainty. Here's hoping for a better March!

Log

• Couldn't pay nearly as much attention as normal, so put some orders in place and went away.
• Offloaded my Nvidia (NVDA) calls, but was not ideal since there was a rally later in the day which would have reduced my loss but not erased the loss. The call at 127 means that either the stock would have to come up above 127 this week, or end over 131 to have paid this call off. NVDA is supremely volatile so it's still very possible, but it's also very possible that the threat of tariffs on China goes and sours the mood on the semiconductor space again this upcoming week.