Portfolio Pursuit

Consumer sentiment has me sad too

February 21, 2025

Today's market was volatile. It started off on a high note, with some early morning surprises giving me an opportunity to make some smart bets. But as the day wore on, things took a turn for the worse.

Consumer Sentiment numbers came in showing a cooling of sentiment among consumers, which I expected to see more of yesterday. That sent equities tumbling downward. I should have taken that as a cue to cash out and call it a day, but instead I got caught up in the excitement of trying to spot an advantageous dip later on.

I misjudged the bottom of the dip and ended up tying up too much capital in the slide downward. I had to swallow my pride and realize some losses on one strategy just to free up capital before the close.

Despite the ups and downs, I managed to make it out green for the day, but not without a lot of juggling towards the end as the bulls and bears fought it out. As I look at my positions going into the weekend, I feel uneasy about some of the risks I'm holding onto.

What a roller coaster! Here's hoping next week sees some positive news with Nvidia (NVDA) earnings and who knows what else.

Next week

I had previously bought Shopify (SHOP) after a dip and then successfully exited after their earnings when they soared. Now they're approaching my buy point again at $115/share. The downward trend in consumer sentiment and potential slow down in the consumer-driven economy does not bode well for Shopify. However I still think that the stock is appropriately valued at 118-125. I will need to make sure I'm in a position to move should Shopify bottom out a little lower.

On Thursday of next week we should see Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings. They slid down to around $135/share and I think that they are appropriately priced around $140/share. The shine on Nvidia has come down a little bit which I think is helpful, but the expectations around earnings next week I still think are impossible for them to succeed on. I don't know if there's going to be a play for me here. If NVDA slides a bit further on Monday, I might pursue some call options for the other side of earnings..

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